IPTV Forecast

According to Kagan Research, the number of multichannel subscribers in the top 13 Asia-Pacific markets will rise from 188 million last year to 356 million in 2015. The report covers China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. The region's consolidated multichannel penetration is expected to rise from 32.7 percent of TV households in 2004 to 54.4 percent in 2015, a 4.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Multichannel revenues are forecast to grow from $13.1 billion in 2004 to $38 billion in 2015, a 10.1 percent CAGR.

The report, Asia Pacific Multichannel Markets 2005, also found that IPTV platforms are expected to develop in nine of the region's 13 countries, increasing subscriber share from less than 0.3 percent in 2004 to 9.4 percent in 2015. IPTV revenue share is projected to rise from 0.7 percent in 2004 to 12.9 percent in 2015. In addition, DTT households will rise from 3.6 million in 2004 to 87.7 million by 2015, a 33.9 percent CAGR.

The door to Asia media market investment is wide open. The region hosts a powerful mixture of favorable market conditions as large untapped consumer populations meet strong adoption of emerging digital media systems. According to a report from Media Partners Asia, India will become Asia’s leading market for cable and satellite broadcasters by 2010, as well as the region’s largest DTH market by 2008 and its leading revenue generating pay-TV market by 2015.

The Multi Channel video industry in India is set to rake in some $5.4 billion in revenues by 2010 and $8.03 billion by 2015. Cable TV is expected to contribute more than 82 per cent of the total subscription by 2015 while direct-to-home (DTH) will be responsible for 15 per cent revenue and Internet Protocol TV three per cent to the total revenue.

Despite the issues like an uneven regulatory framework, especially with respect to retail and wholesale cable TV rates, foreign investment, broadband competition, and program distribution, the Indian market is attractive, says the report.

Media Partners Asia Ltd (MPA), says, "Nonetheless, we believe that the market, not regulation, will triumph in the long term. We expect IPTV services, bundled with broadband, to be offered at a premium to the competition. We see monthly IPTV average revenue per user (ARPU) growing from $5 in 2006 to $7 by 2010 and $ 9 by 2015." The market for multichannel video (cable, DTH, IPTV) could grow from about 65 million in 2005 to 104 million by 2010 and 125 million by 2015. This implies that multichannel video penetration could grow from 57 per cent in 2005 to 67 per cent by 2010 and 71 per cent by 2015.

Driven by DTH pay-TV competition and potential deregulation, the study has projected cable to gradually consolidate last mile ownership, ramp up deployment of bundled digital video and broadband Internet, and corporatise industry practices.